Bills, Acts and Regulations IRP

Integrated Resource Plan 2019 (corrected and gazetted)

Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019) – Corrected
OCTOBER 2019

IRP-2019_corrected-as-gazetted 18 October 2019 No. 42784

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 5
GLOSSARY…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6
1. INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 8
2. THE IRP IN CONTEXT……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 10
2.1 THE ENERGY MIX ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 11
2.2 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS …………………………………………………………….. 15
2.3 PLANT RETIREMENTS DUE TO END-OF-LIFE …………………………………………………. 15
2.4 ELECTRICITY TARIFFS ……………………………………………………………………………………… 16
2.5 WATER ENERGY NEXUS ………………………………………………………………………………….. 17
2.6 ROLE OF ESKOM ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 17
2.7 MUNICIPALITIES AND RELATED ISSUES ………………………………………………………… 18
2.7.1 Access ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 18
2.7.2 Non-Technical Losses and financial viability ………………………………………………… 18
2.7.3 Distributed Generation and Smart Grids……………………………………………………….. 19
2.8 INVESTMENT TRENDS IN THE POWER SECTOR …………………………………………… 19
2.9 REGIONAL INTEGRATION…………………………………………………………………………………. 20
2.10 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT …………………………………………………………………….. 20
3. THE IRP PROCESS AND CONSULTATIONS ……………………………………………………………. 21
4. INPUT PARAMETER ASSUMPTIONS ………………………………………………………………………. 24
4.1 ELECTRICITY DEMAND …………………………………………………………………………………….. 24
4.1.1 Electricity Demand from 2010–2016 …………………………………………………………….. 24
4.1.2 Electricity Demand Forecast for 2017–2050 …………………………………………………. 27
4.1.3 Impact of Embedded Generation, Energy Efficiency and Fuel Switching on
Demand …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 29
4.2 TECHNOLOGY, FUEL AND EXTERNALITY COSTS …………………………………………. 30
4.2.1 Economic Parameters ………………………………………………………………………………….. 31
4.2.2 Technology Learning ……………………………………………………………………………………. 31
4.2.3 Emissions Externality Costs …………………………………………………………………………. 32
4.3 INSTALLED AND COMMITTED CAPACITY ……………………………………………………….. 33
4.3.1 Existing Eskom Plant Performance ………………………………………………………………. 34
4.3.2 Existing Eskom Plant Design Life …………………………………………………………………. 34
4.3.3 Compliance with Minimum Emissions Standards (Air Quality Regulations) ….. 36
This gazette is also available free online at www.gpwonline.co.za
STAATSKOERANT, 18 OKTOBER 2019 No. 42784 7
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019)
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4.4 CO2 EMISSION CONSTRAINTS …………………………………………………………………………. 36
4.5 TRANSMISSION NETWORK COSTS …………………………………………………………………. 37
5. IRP UPDATE ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 39
5.1 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TEST CASES ……………………………………………………… 40
5.2 EMERGING LONG TERM PLAN (IRP 2019) ………………………………………………………. 42
5.3 KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND SUPPORTING ACTIONS …………………………………… 43
5.3.1 Immediate Term Security Supply …………………………………………………………………………. 43
5.3.2 Energy Mix and Just Transition ……………………………………………………………………………. 44
5.3.3 Wind and PV ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 46
5.3.4 Coal …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 46
5.3.5 Gas to Power ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 47
5.3.6 Nuclear ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 47
5.3.7 Regional Power Projects ……………………………………………………………………………………… 48
5.3.8 Energy Storage ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 49
5.3.9 Distributed Generation …………………………………………………………………………………………. 49
5.3.10 Risk Considerations …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 50
6. APPENDICES …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 53
6.1 APPENDIX A – INSTALLED CAPACITY, MINISTERIAL DETERMINATIONS AND
DECOMISSIONING SCHEDULE …………………………………………………………………………………… 53
6.1.1 Municipal, Private and Eskom Generators ……………………………………………………. 53
6.1.2 Eskom Generators ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 54
6.1.3 Emission Abatement Retrofit Programme and 50-year Life Decommissioning 55
6.1.4 Projected Eskom Plant Energy Availability Factor ………………………………………… 55
6.2 APPENDIX B – SUMMARY OF INPUT FROM PUBLIC SUBMISSIONS …………….. 56
A. POLICY &PROCESSES ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 56
B. DEMAND ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 57
C.MISSING TECHNOLOGIES …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 59
D. GENERAL………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 60
E. COAL ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 61
F. GAS …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 65
G. NUCLEAR …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 68
H. CSP …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 71
I. BATTERY STORAGE ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 71
J. EMBEDDED GENERATION/RENEWABLE ENERGY ……………………………………………………………………… 72
8 No. 42784 GOVERNMENT GAZETTE, 18 OCTOBER 2019
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K. HYDRO POWER …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 74
L.CLARITY COMMENTS …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 74
6.3 APPENDIX C – RESULTS OF TEST CASES ……………………………………………………… 79
6.4 APPENDIX D – SUMMARY OF PUBLISHED DRAFT IRP 2018 …………………………. 86
6.4.1. INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 86
6.4.2. RESULTS OF THE SCENARIOS …………………………………………………………………. 87
6.4.3. CONCLUSIONS FROM ANALYSIS OF THE SCENARIOS………………………….. 91
6.4.4. DRAFT IRP 2018………………………………………………………………………………………….. 92
6.4.5. PUBLISHED DRAFT IRP 2018 ELECTRICITY TARIFF PATH COMPARISON96
Figures
Figure 1: IRP Update Review Process ………………………………………………………………………………. 22
Figure 2: Expected GDP Growth from IRP 2010 vs Actual (Sources: Statistics SA &
Promulgated IRP 2010–2030) ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 25
Figure 3: Expected Electricity Sent-out from IRP 2010–2030 vs Actual (Sources: Statistics SA
& Promulgated IRP 2010–2030) ………………………………………………………………………………………… 25
Figure 4: Electricity Intensity History 1990–2016 (Source: Own Calculations based on
Statistics SA Data) …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26
Figure 5: Expected Electricity Demand Forecast to 2050 …………………………………………………… 27
Figure 6: Technology Learning Rates ………………………………………………………………………………… 32
Figure 7: Cumulative Eskom Coal Generation Plants Decommissioning……………………………. 35
Figure 8: Emission Reduction Trajectory (PPD) …………………………………………………………………. 37
Figure 9: IRP 2019 Price Path …………………………………………………………………………………………… 43
Tables
Table 1: Published Draft IRP 2018 (Approved by Cabinet for Consultation) ………………………. 10
Table 2: Local Emission and PM Costs ……………………………………………………………………………… 32
Table 3: CODs for Eskom New Build …………………………………………………………………………………. 33
Table 4: Test Case Variable Input Parameters ………………………………………………………………….. 39
Table 5: IRP 2019 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………

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